Tuesday, 23 April 2013

All the Gold, Glitters no more !!

There is an old Roman saying that Gold is tried by fire and Brave men by adversity. In the current scenario, it looks like the saying has to be twisted and retold as 'Brave men are tried by Gold'. Those brave men who showed courage in buying when the Yellow metal was at its peak in worth. And now its sliding and how. This graph is steeper than the falling career graph of Vinod Kambli.


Gold was sitting pretty at more than Rs. 31,000 per 10 gms some weeks ago and now its a big struggle to be at even Rs. 26,000. Not bigger than the one faced by the last shirt button of then Adnan Sami. The experts are predicting a free fall and the prices to go downhill from here as well. However there is some light at the end of the tunnel as there might be a support at 22,000. The keen technical analysts would know better. In simple words, Rs. 22,000 is where you would look to stop buying Gold and hope the cascading stops.

Main reason is that global inflation is falling which ends up  reducing the value of the yellow metal as a hedging mechanism against rising prices. The so called market pundits who were betting on the wave of inflation  hitting every shore of financial activity are scrambling to reverse their bets. Their haste for the exit on their gold positions is greater than the haste of those people for the exits of theaters playing RGV movie.

Another reason for gold losing its strength could be the rising dollar. The green buck has also moved up on the hopes that US economy is emerging from its crises. Similar to how the morale of Mallya goes up once Gayle starts hitting sixes. I hope Mr. Mallya atleast pays him, afterall he wins them half the matches.

Second big reason just might be the speculative selling by investors seeing that there is a trend of falling gold prices. Not just that, simply small pieces of news doing the rounds that Cyprus is planning to sell some of their gold holdings also triggered the speculative selling in anticipation. Somewhere the capseller has thrown his cap and now monkeys all around the world are throwing theirs. Fools all around, or are they ?

Over the years investors considered gold as a safe asset having stable value that is indifferent to inflation. People are known to stock gold even if they dont find any quick inflows which they could have easily got in fixed deposits or scrips. Its like using all your money and buying Glenn Maxwell and using him as a waterboy.

Basically there are two types of investors: One who buy gold for consumption purposes while others for investment purposes. The consumption kind are on seventh heaven and rushing to the nearest Kalyan Jewellers outlet with shopping bags in hand and sparkle in their eyes. No wonder India accounts for 31.5 percent of gold consumption and that too 77% of that in form of jewellery. Power to women !!

Other kind is the pro investment type. They want to extort big bucks from the market and Gold ETF is their weapon of choice. The one time poster boy of Mutual funds look to have lost its sheen with an increased redemption in the last fiscal. And if the pundits are to be believed, owing to falling prices of the yellow metal Gold ETFs would see a severe decline in terms of the popularity.

But even if the investors and the retailers turn their backs on this precious, all need not go berserk as there will be this demi-gold, I mean demi-god who will come to the rescue. Main hoon na !! Like a Boss !!

Tuesday, 16 April 2013

My Dream is to Fly !!

Yes its not a mere English hit son .. the dream indeed is to fly .. the dream is to rise as a Phoenix from the ashes and not stay a mere Kingfisher anymore. The Indian aviation industry has been caught in the Kratos-esque vice grip of high oil prices on one hand and competitive air fares on the other. The quarterly results clearly show that all the high soaring airlines have reached an all time low barring IndiGo. So is there a turnaround in the offing, lets investigate.


First and foremost, India is abuzz with Tata, India's premier brand entering into a JV with Air Asia. It is the first foreign interest in the large Indian aviation sector.Air Asia finally received regulatory approvals from Foreign Investment Promotion board to invest in this venture. Air Asia's stake is 49 percent and they plan to start the services from Chennai by end of 2013. Major Whistle Podu moment this.


The new airline venture will be in partnership with the Tata Group and Arun Bhatia-promoted Telestra Tradeplace. Its basically adds three vital components: Name of Tatas, Money from Bhatias and Queens Park Rangers losses from Fernandes. Only the football fanatics will get this joke. Others please google it.

But the experts have given a thumbs up to this joint venture saying that it will help domestic aviation industry grow and offer better deals for the passengers. Only time will tell.

Secondly, Etihad's much awaited buy of equity stake in Jet. Etihad, which is expanding globally, has been in talks over an equity stake in Jet since September after India relaxed ownership rules and allowed foreign airlines to buy up to 49 percent in local carriers. Etihad is however looking for a stake of 24 percent valued at about $330 million. 

The deal promises brighter days for both the parties. For Jet, it will propel them to the top of the pile and add much needed boost of funds. As for Etihad, it will guarantee them presence in India - the potential international commerce hub in the years to come. System well Sheikh-en I must say.

However the deal is poised at a standstill as the businessmen from the Gulf are extra cautious of their investment. There are several instances of past failed forays by Gulf investors into India and Etihad does not wish to be bitten by the same bug. More recent news suggest that August will be the likely time that the knot will be tied. Mind it, this is still a much better love story than Twilight. 

And lastly the never ending Kingfisher saga. The Airports Authority of India has asked the airline to cough out the pending Rs. 300 crores or let the flights remain grounded forever. Nowadays the only things remotely close to Mr. Mallya which are sky high are the sixes being hit by Chris Gayle and Virat Kohli's ego.

The renewal of flying permits seem to be a distant dream and the maintenance of the aeroplanes much costlier than Sid Mallya. I truly sympathize with Mallya Sr. but government and SBI have not given up on him. Government with their vested interests has to open up new avenues to get in foreign money have announced 49 percent partnership and SBI are selling heaps of paper scrap earlier know as shares/scrips of Kingfisher Airlines Ltd. 

So its not a strange thing that at the recently concluded IPL6 auction, Mr. Mallya insisted upon auctioning his Kingfisher Airlines and even his heir Mr. Sid Mallya !! 


So this is the current situation of the Indian Aviation industry with Ajit Singh Chaudhary at his helm. The other Ajit is pissing in the dams while for this Ajit the scenario is damn pissing. India shinning !!