Wednesday, 21 November 2012

2G: Raja flipped, now Sibal flopped !!

For a country with one of the largest consumer base and the mentality of buying galore, it was that awkward moment as huge money spinning, moolah strumming bands of airwaves went unsold. The government, which had set a reserve price of Rs 14,000 crore for pan-India spectrum was based on some serious number crunching by CAG. These calculations were done to cover the losses as part of the previous sale in 2008. However the government managed a meagre Rs 9,407.64 crore in the auction that lasted barely two days. Even well 'Cook'ed innings by English batsmen in Tests in India last longer.

But the government was under the weather similar to that IT guy just before the appraisals. The targets were locked and garnering Rs 30,000 crore through disinvestment and Rs 28,000 crore by way of sale of spectrum to telecom companies by the end of this fiscal was no easy task. The deficit was 'hot-air' ballooning and the disinvestment also not going the way it intended to which meant that 2G was their 'ParleG' for treasury nourishment.

This was a classic case of inability of striking the iron when it is hot. From Montek to the neighborhood paanwala, it was a unanimous decision that the auction was timed wrongly. But who says nothing can be done. Like for every flop bollywood star Big Boss acts as that moment of comeback to limelight, in the exact same way re-pricing the spectrum at regular intervals and auction of the remaining bandwidth should be a win-win. Scabbers .. oops Mr. Sibal likes this.

So it all started with Raja treating one of the biggest auctions the country has seen aka 2G spectrum one as inventory system of the local grocer. However the First Come First Served scheme was tinkered with and even the Prime minister and other 'not so Prime ones' were as bamboozled as Aussies facing Indian spinners on fifth day Wankhede wicket. The system threw 'Error 404' everytime the word transparency came up and rest as we know is history.

But let us look from another perspective. Would the common people come to know about the problems in the process if not for the hue and cry by CAG and more importantly the Rs 1.76 lakh crore amount doing the rounds. Its India and people pay attention to numbers. Replace the ministers' names with mere barcodes or heavy numbers and people will take notice. What is gone is gone, make ammends and carry on !!


But again we all flock to one common consensus and earmark one reason and carry on. This time the scapegoat is 'The price of the spectrum is too high'. It sounds like a mere statement and its totally unjustified. Firstly, the spectrum is being sold for a block of 20 years. Who knows where the prices vs usage graph will take us in some years. So what happens when India grows at larger rate, the dynamics have to be understood now and the price needs to be factored. Its like how much you convince the movie buffs that its the start of parallel cinema but that one SRK romantic movie brings you back on the level one supposition.

Second, its mere stupidity to price spectrum low just because business is low. Its like asking for discounts for woolen wear in the month of May. Here it may sound appropriate, but sweaters are no telecom spectrums. And if things worked the same everywhere I would be at the non strike seeing Sachin Tendulkar in action *snap*.  So back to reality then.

Third but not the last, the initial price of the spectrum was kept on the lower side to lure foreign money to the country's economy. Now how much of that money went into the economy is a big question. So now Manmohan Singh and his troops have to work on reverse psychology and get their work done.

So then to put it in a nutshell, one knows that the auction will always be in a pickle when there is bad investment scenario looming large, no involvement of the bigwigs, cartelisation, absence of policy changes and ofcourse the high price of spectrum and not proper utlization. It was basically a recipe for disaster and its fitting that Sibal and his entourage owns up.
So Mr. Sibal, snap out from that Bubble !! Wow that rhymed !!

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