Showing posts with label Gold ETF. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gold ETF. Show all posts

Tuesday, 23 April 2013

All the Gold, Glitters no more !!

There is an old Roman saying that Gold is tried by fire and Brave men by adversity. In the current scenario, it looks like the saying has to be twisted and retold as 'Brave men are tried by Gold'. Those brave men who showed courage in buying when the Yellow metal was at its peak in worth. And now its sliding and how. This graph is steeper than the falling career graph of Vinod Kambli.


Gold was sitting pretty at more than Rs. 31,000 per 10 gms some weeks ago and now its a big struggle to be at even Rs. 26,000. Not bigger than the one faced by the last shirt button of then Adnan Sami. The experts are predicting a free fall and the prices to go downhill from here as well. However there is some light at the end of the tunnel as there might be a support at 22,000. The keen technical analysts would know better. In simple words, Rs. 22,000 is where you would look to stop buying Gold and hope the cascading stops.

Main reason is that global inflation is falling which ends up  reducing the value of the yellow metal as a hedging mechanism against rising prices. The so called market pundits who were betting on the wave of inflation  hitting every shore of financial activity are scrambling to reverse their bets. Their haste for the exit on their gold positions is greater than the haste of those people for the exits of theaters playing RGV movie.

Another reason for gold losing its strength could be the rising dollar. The green buck has also moved up on the hopes that US economy is emerging from its crises. Similar to how the morale of Mallya goes up once Gayle starts hitting sixes. I hope Mr. Mallya atleast pays him, afterall he wins them half the matches.

Second big reason just might be the speculative selling by investors seeing that there is a trend of falling gold prices. Not just that, simply small pieces of news doing the rounds that Cyprus is planning to sell some of their gold holdings also triggered the speculative selling in anticipation. Somewhere the capseller has thrown his cap and now monkeys all around the world are throwing theirs. Fools all around, or are they ?

Over the years investors considered gold as a safe asset having stable value that is indifferent to inflation. People are known to stock gold even if they dont find any quick inflows which they could have easily got in fixed deposits or scrips. Its like using all your money and buying Glenn Maxwell and using him as a waterboy.

Basically there are two types of investors: One who buy gold for consumption purposes while others for investment purposes. The consumption kind are on seventh heaven and rushing to the nearest Kalyan Jewellers outlet with shopping bags in hand and sparkle in their eyes. No wonder India accounts for 31.5 percent of gold consumption and that too 77% of that in form of jewellery. Power to women !!

Other kind is the pro investment type. They want to extort big bucks from the market and Gold ETF is their weapon of choice. The one time poster boy of Mutual funds look to have lost its sheen with an increased redemption in the last fiscal. And if the pundits are to be believed, owing to falling prices of the yellow metal Gold ETFs would see a severe decline in terms of the popularity.

But even if the investors and the retailers turn their backs on this precious, all need not go berserk as there will be this demi-gold, I mean demi-god who will come to the rescue. Main hoon na !! Like a Boss !!

Tuesday, 25 September 2012

The Golden Pompous

Ohh the title bears similarity with a Hollywood movie .. with the animals speaking the mood !! Well its almost the same, the Bulls n the Bears have spoken and yeah Gold is worth its wait .. oops I meant weight !!
Well the gold prices which scaled record highs in the month of August had investors going gaga in the US and Europe. Investors preferred the yellow metal over the fickle minded equity markets.

Priced at Rs. 27136 per 10 gms in January this year, Gold is now enjoying premium price of Rs. 31219 per 10 gms as of September.Now even that cloud is wondering why dint I wait for the golden lining. Although this demand somehow fizzed out in the latter first half of the year largely thanks to slowdown in India & China. It seems like there are no mahurats available for weddings in Kerala !!

Its quite a stat that India & China account for 45% of global demand. Why are Chinese investing so much in Gold rather go and invest in Jackie Chan or Jet Li movies. However investment demand for Gold in particular has fallen in the two Asian giants off late. Gold has acted like that faithful Ramukaka or Deendayal giving steady returns in India over the years. While sensex moved like Abhishek Bachchan's career graph, Gold was the Rahul Dravid of all commodities.

Since Gold prices are denominated in terms of Dollars the equation becomes as clear as an Akshay Kumar movie. The more you see him the less you see other characters in action. Likewise the increase in the price of Gold means a big jolt for Dollar among other currencies.

Under these circumstances come a new wave in the market, the Gold ETFs. This product helps the gold crazy nation to accumulate gold one step at a time with minimum risk of theft or cheating. Transparency being a USP, Gold ETFs have no tax hassles and can become an Indian's best friend if welcomed with open arms.

But no matter what the price is Indians will not end their fascination for the precious metal. Indians are crazy about owning gold. No wonder, that the physical gold held by households in India is more than 15,000 tons, which is the largest in the world. The daughters will continue to get married laden with gold. The middle aged dad will always invest in Gold as a long term investment inspite of better investment options. And yes the festivals, our rich heritage will force even the sane of all to get lured away by the yellow metal. If this madness is not enough, the devotees move up one step ahead and actually are giving gold to Gods.